It is still a risky business that must overcome complex technical challenges, as a high-profile rocket-launch failure over northwest China showed in late October. But with about 80 commercial Chinese space-technology startups now operating and competition heating up, the breakthroughs are likely to soon outnumber the disappointments, analysts say.

“Three years ago, no one imagined that a private Chinese company could do this,” said Lan Tianyi, founder of Ultimate Blue Nebula Co., a Beijing consultancy, referring to the launch attempt. “Now, the private sector in China is very strong.”

China has ambitious plans for its national space program. Coming missions include the launch of an unmanned lunar lander in December, while a Mars lander is due to blast off in 2020. China’s BeiDou satellite navigation system—a rival to the U.S. Global Positioning System—is due for completion that same year.

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